Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
